The first flight is tentatively set to begin around midmorning and could last for much of the day as the plane circles the region, beaming back real-time measurements of 150,000 parameters to Airbus headquarters from its 20 metric tons (22 tons) of on-board test instruments.
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Runway windsocks were being studied more closely than ever as Airbus test pilots prepared to take the world’s largest airliner, the A380, on its maiden flight Wednesday — weather permitting.
About 11 years and 10 billion euros (US$13 billion) into the A380 program, the 555-seater “superjumbo” is set to heave its 280-metric ton (308-ton) frame aloft for the first time before 50,000 expected onlookers, both invited and uninvited.
Some 500 police officers will control the crowds, opening temporary car parks and closing roads for what looks sure to be the biggest aviation event since Concorde’s first flight in 1969. Locals will also watch the takeoff on a giant screen in the main square of Toulouse in southwest France.
In recent days, plane enthusiasts have lined fences at the airport in the Toulouse suburb of Blagnac, where Airbus is headquartered. They watched the A380 as it performed ground tests and taxiing maneuvers.
Airbus chief test pilot Jacques Rosay and flight captain Claude Lelaie were hoping Wednesday to turn up the throttle on the four Rolls Royce engines, ease back the stick and watch the airstrip fall away beneath their double-decker hulk.
But Airbus has warned that the first flight, already about a month behind schedule, could be further delayed by any unforeseen weather conditions, particularly a change in the wind.
“So far it doesn’t look too bad,” said Airbus spokeswoman Barbara Kracht. “But here in Toulouse we can get last-minute surprises.”
A strong southerly wind from the Mediterranean would mean automatic postponement, since it would require a takeoff over the town — considered too risky for a test flight.
On a maiden voyage, aviation experts say, risks remain very slim, since a plane’s aerodynamic characteristics are already well known before it takes off, thanks to years of computer modeling and wind-tunnel tests.
Problems are more likely, but still very rare, later in the test-flight program, when the pilots deliberately take the plane to its limits. An Airbus A330 prototype crashed here in July 1994, killing chief test pilot Nick Warner and six others as they conducted a simulated engine failure exercise.
Rosay, Lelaie and their four fellow crew members will be taking no chances, and will wear parachutes from the first flight, in accordance with Airbus policy, Kracht confirmed. A handrail leads from the cockpit to an escape door that can be jettisoned if the pilots lose control of the plane.
The first flight is tentatively set to begin around midmorning and could last for much of the day as the plane circles the region, beaming back real-time measurements of 150,000 parameters to Airbus headquarters from its 20 metric tons (22 tons) of on-board test instruments.
The full test-flight program is likely to finish soon before the A380 enters service for Singapore Airlines in mid-2006, Airbus says — about three months behind the previous schedule.
Part of the delay is down to the superjumbo’s struggle with a weight problem that consumed months of engineering time and most of the program’s 1.45 billion euros (US$1.88 billion) overspend. Competitive pressure on airlines to offer plusher business-class seating tightened the squeeze — compounded by the A380’s sheer scale.
“In business class you may have as many as 100 seats, so if you increase the weight of a seat by 2 kilograms (4.5 pounds), that adds 200 kilograms (450 pounds) to the interior,” said Max Kingsley-Jones of Flight International magazine. “That’s the problem Airbus has fought.”
Airbus says it has beaten the bulge and the A380 will meet its promise to carry passengers 5 percent farther than Boeing Co.’s longest-range 747 jumbo, at a per-passenger cost up to one-fifth below its rival’s.
But it has yet to show that it can make a return on its investment, of which one-third came from European governments. The plane represents a huge bet that carriers will need bigger aircraft to transport passengers between ever-busier hub airports. Airbus has so far taken 154 orders and says it needs about 250 to break even.
Signs of a boom in the market for smaller planes such as Boeing’s long-range 787 “Dreamliner,” some analysts say, show Airbus was wrong to focus so much effort and investment on the Superjumbo.
Airbus plans to bring its own mid-sized A350 into service in 2010 — two years after the Boeing. The 787 has gained ground with a spurt of recent orders, including 14 from Air Canada on Monday, while planned public A350 funding is in doubt pending resolution of a trans-Atlantic trade dispute on plane subsidies.
“If the A380 costs Airbus the mid-market then it’s the biggest misinvestment in aerospace history since Concorde,” said Richard Aboulafia of the U.S. consultancy Teal Group. “The way the market’s changing makes this look more like a science fair project every day.”
Other experts say the jury is still out on Airbus’ prediction that the world will need 1,250 new very large planes over two decades — or three times Boeing’s forecast.
